Monday, April 25, 2005

Newsnight Screening

Finally made it on tonight. Nothing explicit about the Greens, only that the "big 3" all got negative ratings. Check out the article at: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/newsnight/newsnight_election_2005/4483237.stm

One of our online surfers - yes we have dedicated people monitoring blogs and all that - has picked up a very misleading headline saying that a poll in Brighton has the Greens at 13%. What the article writer fails to point out is that this is a Brighton wide poll, and includes two other constituencies Hove and Brighton Kemptown, where we will do nothing like as well. In advance, I apologise for the number manipulation which is intended to prove a point...

Our Brighton wide vote was 5.3% last time, so it indicates we are up to 13%, Brighton wide.
This is nearly a 2.5 times increase across the city.
We know that most of that increase is going to come in Pavilion.
If the Green vote is static in Hove and Kemptown, that could mean the Green vote in Pavilion could be up at the 32% mark!
Even allowing for all of this, without the strict methodology, there is a limit to what we can draw from this poll. However it confirms my expectation that we are polling in the mid 20s in Pavilion, although you can see how people can manipulate figures to suit themselves.

Despite this kind of headline, which hopes to portray a false reality of a straight Lab/Tory fight in Pavilion, it is becoming increasingly clear that things are going well. There is a bit of a buzz about the place. The Young Greens have been down, active with the local party and getting a lot of work done. I've heard some positive feedback from the days in support, and I know that Brighton is drawing in Green canvassers from across the country.

Haven't listened to myself on Radio 5 yet, but might try and do so before I go to bed.